Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
